The first quarter of 2023 has seen a continuation of the economic uncertainty witnessed at year end 2022. The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and the forced merger of Credit Suisse have further rattled financial markets, and are likely to curb credit extension, impair growth, and potentially increase recession risk (Northern Trust). While U.S. inflation eased to 5% in March, its lowest level in two years, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, and another quarter point hike is on the table for May’s meeting. Although Chairman Powell confirmed risks are higher today, he believes “the path to a soft landing” is still possible, and that a recession would be “mild.” Jamie Dimon, J.P.Morgan CEO, echoed some optimism, highlighting the resiliency of consumer spending, the current strength of the job market, and low unemployment. “Looking ahead,” he says, “the positives are huge.”
