Market Data

Overall, the U.S. economy remains on stable footing heading into the final quarter of 2025. Growth has slowed from recent highs to a more sustainable pace, and inflation continues to ease gradually, with the Fed projected to deliver two more rate cuts before year end. The labor market, while cooler, is holding steady, mainly a result of restrictive immigration policies. Consumer spending appears resilient, and business investment – especially in AI, data, and tech – has helped to propel the U.S. equity markets to all-time highs. While tariffs and trade policy remain a source of uncertainty, markets have shown resilience and adaptability, suggesting confidence in the long-term trajectory. Locally, the Palm Beach residential real estate market continues to outperform national trends, reflecting confidence among high-net-worth buyers and investors. Sustained demand amidst still compromised and limited inventory, especially for the most premium properties, has kept prices at record highs. The Midtown condo market also continues its positive momentum, demonstrating a significant rebound in both transaction and dollar volumes since it dipped in recent years. As the Palm Beach “season” picks up pace, we anticipate sustained progress and growth in the months ahead.

Overall, the U.S. economic outlook is brightening: recession odds have decreased, job growth remains solid, and inflation is likely easing. While tariffs and trade policy continue to present uncertainties, the market response suggests more adaptation than overreaction, with investors and policymakers appearing more comfortable with the evolving landscape. Upon its early July passing, President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act had less market impact than expected. Assuming these trends continue, the Federal Reserve seems likely to move cautiously toward rate reductions in the second half of the year. Similarly, Palm Beach’s luxury residential real estate market demonstrated resilience in Q2 2025, and continued to attract capital and confidence, particularly at the ultra-high-end. Broadly, transactions are up in key segments and prices remain elevated. Nearly 70% of single-family trades in the first half of 2025 sold for over $10 million, reflecting the island’s ongoing appeal as both a lifestyle destination and a long-term store of value. Even if traditional markets grow more volatile, Palm Beach continues to stand apart as a haven of security, safety, and lasting demand.

The U.S. economy presents a mixed picture. After witnessing steady growth through 2024, high tariffs and escalating trade tensions have created uncertainties that could lead to a slowdown. While the job market currently appears resilient, expectations of a short-term tariff-driven rise in inflation have increased. Concerns over financial and economic stability, as well as the risk of recession, are growing amid ongoing trade war uncertainty. However, if heightened tariffs prove ultimately to be a negotiating strategy, it’s widely assumed inflation will resume its downward path. Market uncertainty will continue to play out as policies ultimately right-size. The local Palm Beach residential real estate market started the year off strong, rebounding from the election year uncertainty and segueing into a robust first quarter for 2025. Among single-family residential, steady demand and diminishing inventory maintained upward pressure on pricing, and the previously slowed condo/co-op markets also demonstrated a rebound. President Trump’s presence in Palm Beach continues to draw significant interest and attention to this marketplace as a center of power and influence. Across the bridge, considerable growth and investment throughout Palm Beach County is fueling tremendous momentum and demand, which shows little signs of waning in the months ahead.