Market Data

The third quarter of 2026 marked a shift toward tighter monetary policy. In September, the Federal Reserve unanimously raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% – 4%, its first increase since 2023, citing inflation that has remained above the 2% target for more than five years. Officials signaled that one more increase is likely before year-end, after which rates are expected to stay near current levels through 2027. Despite tighter policy, the broader U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Corporate America is also posting exceptional results, with S&P 500 earnings expected to grow nearly 30% year-over-year in the third quarter, following roughly 50% growth in the second.

The second quarter of 2026 unfolded against a more cautious Federal Reserve backdrop than markets had anticipated entering the year. Kevin Warsh’s first meetings as Fed Chair reaffirmed the benchmark rate at 3.5% – 3.75% and signaled that rates are now expected to remain unchanged, or potentially move higher, before year-end. Although inflation has moderated, it remains above the Fed’s target, while a resilient labor market and steady consumer spending continue to support the U.S. economy. Asa result, expectations for monetary easing have shifted into 2027.

The U.S. economy entered 2026 on relatively stable footing, with steady growth, a resilient labor market, and productivity gains from AI and technology helping to offset the impact of elevated interest rates. Consumers and businesses remain broadly healthy, though the risk backdrop has grown more complex: the ongoing war in Ukraine, military involvement in Venezuela, geopolitical tensions with China, and the Iran conflict are introducing potential oil and commodity price shocks, while high asset valuations, heavy government deficit spending, and evolving trade negotiations add further uncertainty. These factors could produce stickier inflation and higher interest rates than markets currently anticipate. Despite these headwinds, the broader outlook supports cautious optimism, with the economy positioned for continued, if measured, expansion as the year progresses.